Diplomatic Proposals Set to be Presented to Moscow Within Days, Says Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.