Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
